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Concrete Mixture Optimization Using Statistical Methods

PUBLICATION NO. FHWA-RD 03-060

Final Report

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. Introduction

1.1 Statement of Problem and Project Goals

1.2 Scope of Report

CHAPTER 2. Background on Statistical Methods

2.1 Response Surface Methodology

2.2 Experiment Design

   2.2.1 Mixture Approach

   2.2.2 Factorial (MIV) Approach

2.3 Model Fitting and Validation

2.4 Optimization

CHAPTER 3. Laboratory Experiment Using Mixture Approach

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Selection of Materials, Proportions, and Constraints

3.3 Experiment Design Details

3.4 Specimen Fabrication and Testing

3.5 Results and Analysis

   3.5.1 Measured Responses

   3.5.2 Model Identification and Validation for 28-Day Strength

   3.5.3 Models for Other Responses

3.6 Optimization

   3.6.1 Graphical Optimization

   3.6.2 Numerical Optimization

   3.6.3 Accounting for Uncertainty

CHAPTER 4. Laboratory Experiment Using Factorial Approach

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Selection of Materials, Proportions, and Constraints

4.3 Experiment Design Details

4.4 Specimen Fabrication and Testing

4.5 Results and Analysis

   4.5.1 Responses

   4.5.2 Exploratory Data Analysis for 1-Day Strength

   4.5.3 Model Fitting and Validation for 1-Day Strength

   4.5.4 Models for Other Responses

4.6 Optimization

   4.6.1 Graphical Optimization

   4.6.2 Numerical Optimization

   4.6.3 Accounting for Uncertainty

CHAPTER 5. Development of Interactive Web Site (COST Program)

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Selection of Approach

5.3 Considerations in Development

5.4 Description of the Software and Web Site

   5.4.1 Introduction

   5.4.2 Overview of COST Six-Step Process

5.5 Future Considerations

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A. Experiment Design and Data Analysis for Mixture Experiment

A.1 Experiment Design and Response Data

A.2 Data Analysis and Model Fitting

   A.2.1 Slump

   A.2.2 1-Day Strength

   A.2.3 28-Day Strength

   A.2.4 RCT Charge Passed

APPENDIX B. Experiment Design and Data Analysis for Factorial Experiment

B.1 Experiment Design and Response Data

B.2 Data Analysis and Model Fitting

   B.2.1 Slump

   B.2.2 1-Day Strength

   B.2.3 28-Day Strength

   B.2.4 RCT Charge Passed (coulombs)

APPENDIX C. COST User's Guide

Abstract

Section 1. Overview

C1.1 Introduction

C1.2  Scope

C1.3 System Requirements

C1.4 Disclaimer

C1.5 General Information

   C1.5.1 COST Homepage and Main Menu

Section 2. Using COST

C2.1 Background and Preliminary Planning

   C2.1.1 Responses

   C2.1.2 Factors

C2.2 Step 1-Specify Responses

C2.3 Step 2-Specify Measures

   C2.3.1 Instructions for Section 1: Number of Parameters (Factors) to Vary

   C2.3.2 Instructions for Section 2: Select w/c or w/cm

   C2.3.3 Instructions for Section 3: Select Other Mixture Components

   C2.3.4 Specific Instructions for Mineral Admixtures

   C2.3.5 Specific Instructions for Chemical Admixtures

   C2.3.6 Specific Instructions for Aggregates

   C2.3.7 Instructions for Section 4: Additional Information

C2.4 Step 3-Run Trial Batches

   C2.4.1 Guidelines for Running Trial Batches

   C2.4.2 Nuisance Factors and Run Sequence Randomization

   C2.4.3 Running the Experiment

C2.5 Step 4-Input Results

   C2.5.1 Instructions for Changing Cost Information

   C2.5.2 Instructions for Entering/Editing Data

C2.6 Step 5-Analyze Data

   C2.6.1 Instructions for Changing Response Information

   C2.6.2 Analysis Tasks

C2.7 Step 6-Summarize Analysis

Section 3. References

LIST OF FIGURES

1 Example of triangular simplex region from three-component mixture experiment

2 Simplex-centroid design for three variables

3 Example of subregion of full simplex containing range of feasible mixtures

4 Schematic of a central composite design for three factors

5 Examples of desirability functions

6 Response trace plot for 28-day strength (mixture experiment)

7 Contour plot for 28-day strength in water, cement, and HRWRA

8 Contour plot for 28-day strength in water, cement, and silica fume

9 Contour plot for 28-day strength in water, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate

10 Contour plot for 28-day strength in silica fume, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate

11 Desirability functions for responses in mixture experiment

12 Raw data plot for 1-day strength (factorial experiment)

13 Scatterplot showing effect of w/c on 1-day strength (factorial experiment)

14 Means plot for 1-day strength (factorial experiment)

15 Example of cube plot for factorial points

16 Example of a normal probability plot for model validation

17 Example of a residual plot (residuals vs. run) for model validation

18 28-day strength in w/c and silica fume (HRWRA at middle setting)

19 28-day strength in w/c and silica fume (HRWRA at high setting)

20 Overlay plot for RCT < 700 and slump = 50-100 mm

21 Overlay plot for RCT < 700, slump 50-100 mm, and 28-day strength > 51 MPa

22 Desirability functions for factorial experiment

23 Summary screen from COST

A-1 Mixture experiment: normal probability plot for slump

A-2 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. run for slump

A-3 Mixture experiment: Cook's distance for slump

A-4 Mixture experiment: trace plot for slump

A-5 Mixture experiment: contour plot for slump in water, cement, and silica fume

A-6 Mixture experiment: contour plot of slump in water, cement, and HRWRA

A-7 Mixture experiment: normal probability plot for 1-day strength

A-8 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. run for 1-day strength

A-9 Mixture experiment: trace plot for 1-day strength

A-10 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 1-day strength in water, cement, and silica fume

A-11 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 1-day strength in water, cement, and HRWRA

A-12 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 1-day strength in water, cement, and fine aggregate

A-13 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 1-day strength in silica fume, HRWRA, and fine aggregate

A-14 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 1-day strength in silica fume, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate

A-15 Mixture experiment: normal probability plot for 28-day strength

A-16 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. run for 28-day strength

A-17 Mixture experiment: Cook's distance vs. run for 28-day strength

A-18 Mixture experiment: trace plot for 28-day strength

A-19 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 28-day strength in water, silica fume, and HRWRA

A-20 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 28-day strength in water, silica fume, and coarse aggregate

A-21 Mixture experiment: contour plot of 28-day strength in cement, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate

A-22 Mixture experiment: normal probability plot for RCT charge passed  (no transform) 

A-23 Mixture experiment: normal probability plot for RCT charge passed (natural log transform) 

A-24 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. predicted for RCT charge passed  (no transform) 

A-25 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. run for RCT charge passed (no transform)

A-26 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. predicted for RCT charge passed (natural log transform)

A-27 Mixture experiment: residuals vs. run for RCT charge passed (natural log transform)

A-28 Mixture experiment: Cook's distance for RCT charge passed (natural log transform)

A-29 Mixture experiment: trace plot for RCT charge passed (natural log transform)

A-30 Mixture experiment: contour plot of ln (RCT charge passed) in water, silica fume, and coarse aggregate

A-31 Mixture experiment: contour plot of ln (RCT charge passed) in water, silica fume, and HRWRA

A-32 Mixture experiment: contour plot of ln (RCT charge passed) in cement, HRWRA, and fine aggregate

B-1 Factorial experiment: normal probability plot for slump

B-2 Factorial experiment: raw data plot for slump

B-3 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of slump vs. w/c

B-4 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of slump vs. coarse aggregate

B-5 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of slump vs. fine aggregate

B-6 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of slump vs. HRWRA

B-7 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of slump vs. silica fume

B-8 Factorial experiment: means plots for slump

B-9 Factorial experiment: slump vs. run sequence

B-10 Factorial experiment: lag plot for slump  

B-11 Factorial experiment: normal probability plot for 1-day strength

B-12 Factorial experiment: raw data plot for 1-day strength

B-13 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 1-day strength vs. w/c

B-14 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 1-day strength vs. fine aggregate

B-15 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 1-day strength vs. coarse aggregate

B-16 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 1-day strength vs. HRWRA

B-17 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 1-day strength vs. silica fume

B-18 Factorial experiment: means plot for 1-day strength

B-19 Factorial experiment: 1-day strength vs. run sequence

B-20 Factorial experiment: lag plot for 1-day strength

B-21 Factorial experiment: normal probability plot for 28-day strength

B-22 Factorial experiment: raw data plot for 28-day strength

B-23 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 28-day strength vs. w/c

B-24 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 28-day strength vs. fine aggregate

B-25 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 28-day strength vs. coarse aggregate

B-26 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 28-day strength vs. HRWRA

B-27 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of 28-day strength vs. silica fume

B-28 Factorial experiment: means plot for 28-day strength

B-29 Factorial experiment: 28-day strength vs. run sequence

B-30 Factorial experiment: lag plot for 28-day strength

B-31 Factorial experiment: normal probability plot for RCT charge passed

B-32 Factorial experiment: raw data plot for RCT charge passed

B-33 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of RCT charge passed vs. w/c

B-34 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of RCT charge passed vs. fine aggregate

B-35 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of RCT charge passed vs. coarse aggregate

B-36 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of RCT charge passed vs. HRWRA

B-37 Factorial experiment: scatterplot of RCT charge passed vs. silica fume

B-38 Factorial experiment: means plots for RCT charge passed

B-39 Factorial experiment: RCT charge passed vs. run sequence

B-40 Factorial experiment: lag plot for RCT charge passed

C-1 COST homepage

C-2 "Response Information" form

C-3 First two sections of "Mixture Factors and Information" input form

C-4 Third section of "Mixture Factors..." form (mineral admixtures section)

C-5 Third section of "Mixture Factors..." form (chemical admixtures section)

C-6 Third section of "Mixture Factors..." form (aggregates section)

C-7 Fourth section of "Mixture Factors..." form (additional information section)

C-8 Portion of an experimental plan generated by COST

C-9 "Run Trial Batches" screen

C-10 Data entry form for the COST system

C-11 Analysis menu showing individual analysis tasks

C-12 Summary statistics table (output of analysis task 1)

C-13 Output of analysis task 2 (counts plot matrix of factors)

C-14 Output of analysis task 3 (counts plot matrix of factors)

C-15 Output of analysis task 4

C-16 Output of analysis task 5A

C-17 Output of analysis task 5B

C-18 Output of analysis task 6

C-19 Output of analysis task 7A

C-20 Output of analysis task 7B

C-21 Output of analysis task 8 (for response RCT)

C-22 Output of analysis task 9

C-23 Calculator for predicting responses based on models

C-24 Example summary returned by the COST system


LIST OF TABLES

1 Number of runs required for CCD experiment for k = 2 to 5 factors)

2 Example of ANOVA sequential model sum of squares

3 Example of ANOVA lack-of-fit test

4 Example of ANOVA model fitting for 1-day strength

5 Material volume fraction ranges for mixture experiment

6 Mixture proportions for mixture experiment

7 Test results and costs (mixture experiment)

8 Sequential model sum of squares for 28-day strength (mixture experiment)

9 Variable settings corresponding to coded values (factorial experiment)

10 Mixture proportions (per m3) for factorial experiment

11 Test results and costs (factorial experiment)

12 Sequential model sum of squares for 1-day strength (factorial experiment)

13 Lack-of-fit test for 1-day strength (factorial experiment)

14 ANOVA for 1-day strength model (factorial experiment)

15 Summary statistics for 1-day strength model (factorial experiment)

16 Summary of analysis tasks and tools in COST

A-1 Mixture experiment design in terms of volume fractions of components

A-2 Mixture experiment: slump and 1-day strength data

A-3 Mixture experiment: 28-day strength and RCT charge passed data

A-4 Mixture experiment: sequential model of squares for slump

A-5 Mixture experiment: lack-of-fit test for slump

A-6 Mixture experiment: model summary statistics for slump

A-7 Mixture experiment: ANOVA for slump mixture model

A-8 Mixture experiment: coefficient estimates for slump mixture model

A-9 Mixture experiment: adjusted effects for slump mixture model

A-10 Mixture experiment: sequential model of sum of squares for 1-day strength

A-11 Mixture experiment: lack-of-fit test for 1-day strength

A-12 Mixture experiment: summary statistics for 1-day strength

A-13 Mixture experiment: ANOVA for 1-day strength mixture model

A-14 Mixture experiment: coefficient estimates for 1-day strength mixture model

A-15 Mixture experiment: sequential model of sum of squares for 28-day strength

A-16 Mixture experiment: lack-of-fit test for 28-day strength

A-17 Mixture experiment: model summary statistics for 28-day strength

A-18 Mixture experiment: ANOVA for 28-day strength mixture model

A-19 Mixture experiment: estimated coefficients for 28-day strength mixture model

A-20 Mixture experiment: adjusted effects for 28-day strength mixture model

A-21 Mixture experiment: sequential model of sum of squares for RCT charge passed

A-22 Mixture experiment: lack-of-fit test for RCT charge passed

A-23 Mixture experiment: model summary statistics for RCT charge passed

A-24 Mixture experiment: ANOVA for RCT charge passed mixture model

A-25 Mixture experiment: estimated coefficients for RCT charge passed mixture model

A-26 Mixture experiment: adjusted effects for RCT charge passed mixture model

B-1 Factorial experiment: design by volume fraction of factors

B-2 Factorial experiment: slump and 1-day strength data

B-3 Factorial experiment: 28-day strength and RCT charge passed data

B-4 Factorial experiment: sequential model sum of squares for slump

B-5 Factorial experiment: lack-of-fit test for slump

B-6 Factorial experiment: ANOVA for slump model

B-7 Factorial experiment: summary statistics for slump model

B-8 Factorial experiment: coefficient estimates for slump model

B-9 Factorial experiment: sequential model sum of squares for 1-day strength

B-10 Factorial experiment: lack-of-fit test for 1-day strength

B-11 Factorial experiment: ANOVA for 1-day strength model

B-12 Factorial experiment: summary statistics for 1-day strength model

B-13 Factorial experiment: coefficient estimates for 1-day strength model

B-14 Factorial experiment: sequential model sum of squares for 28-day strength

B-15 Factorial experiment: lack-of-fit test for 28-day strength

B-16 Factorial experiment: ANOVA for 28-day strength model

B-17 Factorial experiment: summary statistics for 28-day strength model

B-18 Factorial experiment: coefficient estimates for 28-day strength model

B-19 Factorial experiment: sequential model sum of squares for RCT charge passed

B-20 Factorial experiment: lack-of-fit test for RCT charge passed

B-21 Factorial experiment: ANOVA for RCT charge passed model

B-22 Factorial experiment: summary statistics for RCT charge passed model

B-23 Factorial experiment: coefficient estimates for RCT charge passed model

C-1 Examples of components and responses

C-2 Information required for different materials

C-3 Description of summary statistics provided in analysis task 1

 

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